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The latest economic data shows that economic activity in August presented a complex situation, bringing new challenges to policymakers.
The comprehensive Purchasing Managers' Index ( PMI ) rose to 55.4, an increase from July's 55.1, indicating a strengthened expansion momentum in the private economy overall. Among them, the manufacturing PMI surged to 53.3, reaching a 15-month high, reversing the previous contraction state. Although the services PMI declined slightly, it still remained in the expansion range at 55.4.
The job market is also sending positive signals, with the comprehensive employment index rising to 52.8, the highest level in seven months, reflecting an increased willingness of companies to hire. However, the manufacturing employment index remains at a five-year low, indicating that the employment situation in the industry is still severe.
It is worth noting that inflationary pressures have risen. The input price index has increased to 62.3, a three-month high; more concerning is that the output price index has risen to 59.3, a three-year high, indicating that companies are passing the rising costs onto consumers.
These data combined show that economic vitality is recovering, but also suggest that inflation risks may be resurfacing. For monetary policy, this complex situation may not be favorable for a recent interest rate cut and may even prompt decision-makers to consider maintaining the current interest rate level or further tightening policies.
Overall, while the signs of a rebound in the manufacturing sector are encouraging, rising inflationary pressures and the uneven development of the job market remain issues that require close attention. Policymakers will face the daunting task of seeking a balance between stimulating economic growth and controlling inflation.