Recently, there have been significant changes in the financial markets, with the probability of the Fed lowering interest rates in September dropping sharply from over 90% to 78%. This shift has sparked widespread attention and discussion in the market.

A Fed governor recently stated that there may only be one rate cut this year. More notably, Commissioner Harmak bluntly pointed out that based on the current economic data, the likelihood of a rate cut in September is minimal.

Analyzing this situation, we need to consider several key factors. First, the influence of political pressure on the Fed's decision-making cannot be ignored. Currently, the Fed is facing immense pressure from the executive branch, which may instead prompt them to adhere more firmly to their independence and decision-making autonomy.

Secondly, Chairman Powell has always been a data-driven decision maker. If the economic data does not support a rate cut, he is likely to choose to hold steady. Although last September's rate cut decision was unexpected, the current political environment may prompt the Fed to be more cautious.

The recently released Fed meeting minutes further strengthened this view. If Powell clearly states his position in the upcoming speech, the likelihood of not lowering interest rates in September will greatly increase.

This situation has also affected the cryptocurrency market, leading to a market correction. Investors are closely following the dynamics of ETH staking withdrawals to assess their potential impact on the market.

Overall, the Fed's decisions will continue to be influenced by both economic data and political factors. Market participants need to remain vigilant and closely monitor future economic indicators and statements from Fed officials to better predict and respond to potential policy changes.