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Dollar bullish sentiment heats up as Powell may maintain a moderate stance to resist rate cut pressures.
[Block Rhythm] On August 22, currency options showed that bullish sentiment for the US dollar rose to its highest level in three weeks, as traders bet that Powell would not take an overly dovish stance on interest rate cuts. "The possibility of a 25 basis point rate cut in September will be retained," said Sonja Marten, head of forex and monetary policy research at Deutsche Bank, "but I don't think he will be more aggressive than that."
Marten stated that Powell may resist interest rate cut pressures from Trump, as he will "make it very clear that he will not take a path that may lack fundamental support due to pressure from the White House." Nick Rees, head of macro research at Monex Europe, indicated that if the market "overly fixates" on any hint from Powell about a possible rate cut in September, it could trigger an initial sell-off of the dollar, but this situation may be short-lived. "Overall, we expect the tone to lean hawkish, which will further strengthen the dollar before the weekend."