Recently, the international credit rating agency Fitch reaffirmed the "AA+" rating of the United States and maintained a stable outlook. This decision reflects Fitch's cautious assessment of the economic outlook for the United States.

According to Fitch's forecast, the U.S. government deficit is expected to show a volatile trend. It is projected that by 2025, the deficit will shrink to 6.9% of GDP. However, this trend may be difficult to sustain, with deficits expected to rise to 7.8% and 7.9% of GDP in 2026 and 2027, respectively.

Fitch's forecast for economic growth indicates a period of stagnation in the short term and a potential recovery in the medium term. In 2026, the U.S. economy is expected to maintain a low growth rate of 1.5%, primarily due to policy uncertainty and high inflation suppressing consumer spending. However, as the pace of interest rate cuts may accelerate, domestic demand is expected to be stimulated in the second half of 2026, leading to a rebound in economic growth to 2.1% in 2027.

This assessment highlights the complex situation faced by the U.S. economy. On one hand, the ongoing pressure of fiscal deficits requires prudent responses from policymakers; on the other hand, adjustments in monetary policy may provide some support for economic growth. However, the realization of policy effects still carries uncertainty, necessitating close attention to changes in future economic indicators.